Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
- Strong performance in the European wholesale business, with the spring/summer order book up 10%, indicating continued growth and market share gains in Europe.
- The company is making significant marketing investments to regain top-line momentum, including influencer programs, experiential activations, and launching a new loyalty program in Europe. These initiatives are expected to drive future sales growth.
- Expansion of the Guess Jeans brand in the U.S. market, targeting casual wear and a younger customer, presents a significant growth opportunity to rebuild and grow the brand in North America.
- The company's U.S. retail segment is underperforming, and the elevation of the Guess brand hasn't resonated in the U.S. market as it has in Europe. Carlos Alberini admitted that while the universal product line has been "tremendously successful in Europe," it has not had the same impact in the U.S., where they have a "very limited offering" with about 55 stores in North America and "limited" e-commerce presence. They are also seeing increased competitive pressure, with competition being "more aggressive with pricing and promotional activities," leading them to consider adjusting their pricing strategy.
- Guess is facing increased costs due to supply chain challenges, including significant expenses from using alternative shipping methods like air freight to secure products amid supply chain delays and the Red Sea crisis. Carlos Alberini stated that they have "incurred significant costs" to secure the type of product needed to service the business, which could pressure margins.
- The acquisition of rag & bone is currently dilutive to operating margins. While management is hopeful about future contributions, there is uncertainty about how quickly it will become accretive. Carlos Alberini acknowledged that "rag & bone today is dilutive to our operating margin," though they expect that "after we make some of these initial investments," they will start gaining momentum with the brand.
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
---|---|---|---|
European market performance | Consistently highlighted across Q4 2024, Q1 and Q2 2025 as a major strength with solid wholesale and retail comps, double-digit revenue growth and strong order books despite some margin pressure due to higher costs | Emphasized in Q3 2025 for robust revenue growth (7% U.S. dollar growth, 6% constant‐currency), strong wholesale performance and healthy retail comps despite slightly compressed operating margins from higher costs | Steady and reliable performance. The sentiment remains bullish despite minor cost‐driven margin challenges. |
U.S. retail underperformance | Repeatedly cited in Q4 2024, Q1 and Q2 2025 with issues like falling foot traffic, price sensitivity, negative comps, and ongoing challenges in conversion—particularly in the Americas compared to better performing Canadian stores | In Q3 2025 the U.S. segment is described as “particularly challenging” with further emphasis on declining traffic, heightened price sensitivity and a need for strategic adjustments (pricing reviews, marketing investments, and product repositioning) | Persistent negative sentiment. The challenges continue unabated, prompting enhanced strategic responses. |
Expansion and new product launches | Previously discussed in Q4 2024, Q1 and Q2 2025 with initial launches and strategic store openings for Guess Jeans, plus the acquisition and early integration of rag & bone to drive revenue growth and global presence | Q3 2025 brings new physical openings (e.g. Tokyo, West Hollywood), further expansion in wholesale markets and a robust rollout of Guess Jeans and rag & bone initiatives, indicating momentum in leveraging both internal and acquired brands | Accelerating expansion efforts. A consistently positive focus that is now more geographically and product‐diversified. |
Marketing investments for brand and growth initiatives | Highlighted in Q4 2024, Q1 and Q2 2025 as key strategic investments to drive awareness, featuring major campaigns, social media strategies and events tied to new brands | In Q3 2025, marketing investments surged (approximately an 85% increase from the prior year's Q3) with targeted campaigns, influencer collaborations and a new loyalty program strategy—underscoring a continued commitment to brand building | Increasing and highly prioritized. The sentiment remains positive with greater scale and focus on customer engagement. |
Supply chain disruptions and increased freight costs (Red Sea crisis) | Addressed in Q4 2024, Q1 and Q2 2025 as a recurring challenge with delays, higher ocean freight rates and gradual mitigation steps, including accelerated supplier deliveries and shifts in sourcing | Q3 2025 provides more detailed quantification of the impact (e.g. incremental freight headwinds of ~$5 million, higher reliance on air freight) and highlights proactive measures such as adjusted supply chain processes and supplier collaboration | Ongoing challenge with clearer mitigation steps. The topic remains a significant cost headwind but is actively managed. |
Integration and margin impact of rag & bone acquisition | Initially introduced in Q4 2024 and revisited in Q1 and Q2 2025 with early integration efforts that pressured margins while contributing to revenue growth, with anticipation of future margin improvement and operational synergies | In Q3 2025, integration is progressing with strong cross-team collaboration and double-digit sales growth, although rag & bone remains margin-dilutive for now; there is optimism for eventual margin improvement as investments stabilize | Evolutionary. The integration continues to support growth despite short-term margin dilution, with long-term gains expected. |
Global expansion into emerging markets | Discussed in Q4 2024 (via acquisitions in Chile/Peru and strong Asian performance), in Q1 2025 (with focus on Turkey, Middle East, India and Latin America) and in Q2 2025 for rag & bone expansion in emerging regions | Q3 2025 reiterates global expansion using its platform, emphasizing new store openings and partnerships for rag & bone in markets including Europe, the Middle East, Mexico, Canada and Australia | Consistent focus with evolving geographic targeting. The strategy remains central, with new market details emerging. |
Operating margin pressures and improvements | Q4 2024 noted segment improvements (notably in Europe and licensing), while Q1 and Q2 2025 reported pressures across regions from higher expenses and investments alongside currency effects | Q3 2025 details pressures across regions (e.g. Americas Retail loss margin and lower margins in Europe and Asia) with explicit figures and expectations for Q4 improvement through full-price selling and lower markdowns | Persistent short-term pressures. Despite ongoing margin compression, management is optimistic about long-term improvement. |
Currency headwinds impacting revenues | Recurrently mentioned in Q4 2024, Q1 and Q2 2025 as factors eroding revenue growth across regions—especially in Europe and Asia—though sometimes mitigated by favorable exchange moves later in the year | In Q3 2025, the strengthening U.S. dollar is described as having shifted from an expected tailwind to a significant headwind (over $10 million impact) with full-year revenue adjustments, continuing to be a major challenge | Consistently negative impact. Currency fluctuations remain a significant headwind across all periods. |
Investments in talent acquisition | Highlighted in Q4 2024 as part of a “year of investment” with searches for key senior roles, and noted in Q2 2025 through active recruitment for positions such as CCO, CDO, Head of HR and CFO | No mention of talent acquisition initiatives is found in Q3 2025 discussions | Dropped from current period focus. Once a highlighted strategic initiative, it is no longer mentioned in Q3, suggesting a temporary de-emphasis. |